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Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 579
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 7:59 am: | 
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I went to the A-Z and copied a list of all the murders from Fairy Fay to Francis Coles with dates. I then went to the calendar program on my computer and printed off 1887, 1888, 1889, and 1891. I circled the relevant dates and counted all the intervals. I used an arbitrary but consistent method to count the intervals. I included the date of the first murder in each interval in the count and counted up to the day before the second murder in the interval. I then created an Excel spreadsheet and graph. The first graph only includes the canonical 5.
As you can see the murders came farther and farther apart. From Nichols to Chapman was 8 days. From Chapman to Stride/Eddowes was 22 days, and from Stride/Eddowes to Kelly was 40 days. Contrary to what we would expect of an SK he was not heating up, he was tapering off. The next post will contain a graph of all the murders.
(Message edited by diana on April 24, 2005) |
Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 580
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 8:14 am: |
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Here is the graph of intervals of all the murders. Please note that all are plotted but Excel did not label them all.
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Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 584
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Friday, April 29, 2005 - 12:21 pm: |
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I am wondering why Jack's dates came farther and farther apart. This seems to be contrary to conventional wisdom. Is it possible that the increased patrols, both of police and the WVC slowed him down, when his actual inclination would be to speed up? Is there any documentation as to dates of increasing patrols, degree of increasing patrols both public and private? I would like to put another line on my Excel chart and see if there is a correlation. |
AP Wolf
Assistant Commissioner
Username: Apwolf
Post Number: 2015
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Friday, April 29, 2005 - 5:59 pm: |
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Diana
Your efforts here are much appreciated, even though I was unable to download your work, probably me, I’m useless at this sort of thing.
I do think that you shouldn’t feel that a murderer is always controlled by impulse, urge or police constraints, when it is very likely that said murderer could be constrained by his own social impulses. In other words we must accept the fact that Jack was a lunatic, and this would have constrained him in his normal life. It is very likely that Jack would have been institutionalised for much of his life, and his murders would have reflected that fact.
The LVP was actually quite kind to lunatics, I think simply because they were overawed by the task in front of them, so it was not unusual to have lunatics wandering around Whitechapel - who had committed very serious criminal offences - on various lenient schemes where they were being transferred from asylum to asylum in an effort to ‘cure’ them.
The courts and police were very much at a loss of how to deal with such lunatics, hence their confinement became very ‘gappy’.
This could very well be the explanation for the situation you mention. |
Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 585
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Friday, April 29, 2005 - 6:45 pm: |
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If you can't see my graph it may be because you don't have Excel on your computer. I made a line graph and the line slants upward. The murders came farther and farther apart. If this was due to the activity of the WVC, then Jack must have been very frustrated. Every time he went on the prowl, one of those interfering committee members was in the way. Might this be the explanation for the Lusk Letter?
A review of the Casebook seems to suggest that the WVC had its beginning about September 10. Prior to that there were murders the 8th of September and the 31st of August, one week apart, suggesting he liked to prowl every weekend. Possibly the WVC slowed him down?
(Message edited by diana on April 29, 2005) |
Phil Hill
Inspector
Username: Phil
Post Number: 395
Registered: 1-2005
| | Posted on Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 1:43 pm: |
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But Diana, there are a dozen other possible explanations for the spacing of the murders.
If Druitt were the suspect, his social calendar might be the influence, not the Vigilance Committee.
And if his impulse was so strong, and the Committee so successful and active, why did Jack not simply move a few street away? After all, if Stride was his victim (which I doubt) he did shift his ground slightly - to the other side of the Whitechapel Road. A few streets would have been enough as the Committee could not be everywhere.
Before agreeing with your analysis, i would also need to know more about the Committees methods. How many people patrolled, where and at what times? After all some of the early murders (Nichols, Chapman) were in the early morning, almost as dawn was breaking, not comparatively early as with Eddowes. Unless the Vigilance Committee has a LOT of people on the ground for long shifts, nightly, I doubt that Jack could have been too inhibited by their efforts.
Phil |
Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 587
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 3:42 pm: |
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Phil: How many people patrolled, where and at what times? After all some of the early murders (Nichols, Chapman) were in the early morning, almost as dawn was breaking, not comparatively early as with Eddowes.
I couldn't agree with you more. In order to prove my hypothesis I need more info about the WVC. Are the details extant anywhere? The only fact I have is that before the WVC we had two murders about a week apart. After the WVC the intervals grew progressively longer. This, while suggestive could be only a coincidence. |
AP Wolf
Assistant Commissioner
Username: Apwolf
Post Number: 2018
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 3:56 pm: |
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Diana
One must also allow for the upper-class 'do-gooders' from Toynbee Hall who were also patrolling the Whitechapel area in the hope of either snapping Jack or deterring him.
Somewhere there is an old thread concerning this. |
Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 589
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 4:30 pm: |
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I think Phil made an interesting point about times and places. Nichols and Chapman were both killed north of the Whitechapel Road and east of Commercial Street. If the various patrollers, whether police or private, then concentrated their patrols in that area, it is no wonder that Stride died south of the Whitechapel Road, and Eddowes died west of Commercial Street. There would have been an initial period where Jack prowled in his comfort zone where he had succeeded before. Gradually he would have realized that he had to move on because of the presence of the patrollers. This process accounts for the longer interval between Chapman and Stride/Eddowes. After the double event he apparently did not want to leave Whitechapel altogether (or we would have heard of murders in the West End or somewhere else). At the same time, the patrollers would have reacted to Stride/Eddowes by enlarging their perimeter. This would have led to the very long interval between the double event and Kelly and the fact that Kelly was killed indoors.
Since Nichols was killed at 3:30AM or thereabouts and Chapman at about 5:30 -- 6:00 the patroller's would have set their shifts for after Midnight at the outset. That would explain why Stride/Eddowes happened much earlier. Then reacting to the double event, they would have enlarged their time perimeter. That was why it took him so long to find another victim.
A lot of this is speculation, but if correct it tells us that
1.His comfort zone was in the Nichol's/Chapman area, a theory supported by the apron in Goulston St. He probably lived in that area.
2. The most convenient time for him to kill was after 2AM. He only killed earlier because he had to and in Kelly's case the issue was negated by her being indoors.
3. For one reason or another he could not bring himself to leave Whitechapel. He preferred to dodge the patrollers.
And while writing this I just had an inspiration about something else, but it probably belongs on the Hutchinson thread. |
Joan Taylor
Unregistered guest
| | Posted on Friday, April 29, 2005 - 1:56 pm: |
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The data seems to suggest a correlation between a) time delay between inspiration and killing and b) violence of the delayed acts committed.
Jack's actions were obviously impinged by heightened Police activity and when delay occured, the acts were more violent. Prior to the Eddowes murder there had been some little delay, ( compared to the time delay between the two other women victims), and the Kelly murder, more violent still, occured after a significant waiting period. This would concurr with the modern diagnoses re psychopathic frustration and need.
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Dan Norder
Chief Inspector
Username: Dannorder
Post Number: 647
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 11:25 pm: |
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There are so many different plausible explanations for the time gaps that it'd be very difficult to name any one as more important than any other.
The first post is built upon the idea that serial killers will space the acts closer together as time moves on, and that is not always accurate. The ones who are not interrupted in the middle of a string seem to have a build up and then level off. Given enough time some have been known to cycle through these periods with multiple instances of increasing and then decreasing activity.
Also, depending upon the cannonical five to be ab accurate list of the only attempted kills could be a big mistake. Tabram could easily be another, which would throw the overall timing off, and I suspect it's highly probable that Jack was actively hunting on some other nights but just didn't find a good target.
I don't feel we have enough solid information upon which to base a conclusion.
Dan Norder, Editor
Ripper Notes: The International Journal for Ripper Studies
 Profile  Email  Dissertations  Website
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Diana
Chief Inspector
Username: Diana
Post Number: 592
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, May 01, 2005 - 9:28 am: |
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No you're right, we don't. But we do have enough to look more deeply into it. |
Dan Norder
Chief Inspector
Username: Dannorder
Post Number: 649
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Sunday, May 01, 2005 - 11:37 pm: |
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Absolutely... looking more into things is always helpful. My main thought (which is not new, of course) on the increased patrols and vigilance committee is that it seems odd that Jack didn't just go someplace else to kill. There were plenty of other areas in London where prostitutes were available and where there wouldn't be so many people on the lookout. To me that means someone who lived in the area or was from far, far away and was only familiar with that area of London.
Dan Norder, Editor
Ripper Notes: The International Journal for Ripper Studies
Profile Email Dissertations Website
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Caroline Anne Morris
Assistant Commissioner
Username: Caz
Post Number: 1692
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 02, 2005 - 3:21 am: |
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Hi Dan,
Or it could be that he wasn't going to be forced out of his chosen territory by anyone. "It's either Whitechapel or hell" kind of attitude?
Love,
Caz
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Dan Norder
Chief Inspector
Username: Dannorder
Post Number: 654
Registered: 4-2004
| | Posted on Monday, May 02, 2005 - 3:41 am: |
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Hi Caz,
I'm not up on the actual place names, but I thought maybe only one or two of the murders actually was in Whitechapel proper?
But as an East End or Hell kind of thing, sure, I guess that's possible. It'd be especially risky to choose that if he had other options, but then the whole deciding to slash open dead whores thing was not a particularly rational decision by most ways of thinking to begin with.
Dan Norder, Editor
Ripper Notes: The International Journal for Ripper Studies
Profile Email Dissertations Website
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Caroline Anne Morris
Assistant Commissioner
Username: Caz
Post Number: 1694
Registered: 2-2003
| | Posted on Monday, May 02, 2005 - 5:36 am: |
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Quite. It's just that he obviously had an obsession with slashing open dead whores, so it's likely he was obsessive about other aspects of his East End 'work', and maybe other aspects of his life too.
We have the option to go to other websites to read and post about the subject of JtR when the debates here get a bit - shall we say - feisty.  But some of us come here regardless, and have no desire to do our thing elsewhere.
Jack's desires or obsessions would have been in a different league (I sincerely hope!). But the word 'territorial' certainly springs to mind when I think of the grip his actions had over the area.
Love,
Caz
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Graph of Intervals for Canonical 5